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How AAII members feel about current market conditions as of 6/29/2016:
Bullish 28.91%
Neutral 37.67%
Bearish 33.42%


Portfolio Observer

Popular Investment Benchmarks   (Data as of 12/31/2015)
Stocks Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Large-Cap Stocks 11.33% 1.58% 11.5% 7.29%
Mid-Cap Stocks 12.53% -0.86% 9.49% 8.05%
Small-Cap Stocks 13.67% -4.09% 9.25% 7.61%
International Stocks 12.92% -10.01% 1.94% 2.0%
Emerging Markets Stocks 16.86% -18.49% -4.93% 2.86%
Fixed Income
Intermediate Bonds 3.48% 3.08% 2.94% 5.09%
Short-Term Bonds 0.94% 0.93% 0.79% 2.66%
Overall market
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 11.51% 0.04% 11.0% 7.42%

AAII Asset Allocation Models

What is your investor profile? Follow one of our recommended allocations and check back frequently for monthly return data.

Investor Profile Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Aggressive Investor
  • Age 18-35
  • 30+ Years Investment Horizon
10.7% -4.2% 6.2% 5.8%
Moderate Investor
  • Age 35-55
  • 20+ Years Investment Horizon
8.1% -1.8% 6.0% 5.8%
Conservative Investor
  • Age 55+
  • 10+ Years Investment Horizon
5.7% 0.7% 6.1% 5.8%
 Suggested Allocation Breakdowns
Aggressive


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   20% Small-Cap Stocks
   20% International Stocks
   10% Emerging Markets Stocks
   10% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Moderate


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   15% International Stocks
   5% Emerging Markets Stocks
   30% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Conservative


   25% Large-Cap Stocks
   10% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   5% International Stocks
   0% Emerging Markets Stocks
   40% Intermediate Bonds
   10% Short-Term Bonds
Aggressive Portfolio Return
YTD: 3.5%
1 yr: -4.2%
5 yrs: 6.2%
10 yrs: 5.8%
Moderate Portfolio Return
YTD: 3.6%
1 yr: -1.8%
5 yrs: 6.0%
10 yrs: 5.8%
Conservative Portfolio Return
YTD: 3.4%
1 yr: 0.7%
5 yrs: 6.1%
10 yrs: 5.8%

Broad Allocation Scenarios
Aggressive Investor

Allocations

Aggressive Portfolio Return
1 yr: -4.2%
5 yrs: 6.2%
10 yrs: 5.8%

Characteristics
Growth: Substantial
Income: Very Low
Risk: Substantial Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
10% Average Annual Growth in Value
-30% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 18-35
30+Years: Long Investment Horizon
For investors who are very risk tolerant
Transition: 80% Diversified Stock
20% Fixed Income
Investors, as they age, usually transition their portfolios toward less risky and less aggressive asset allocations.

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Moderate Investor

Allocations

Moderate Portfolio Return
1 yr: -1.8%
5 yrs: 6.0%
10 yrs: 5.8%

Characteristics
Growth: Moderate
Income: Low
Risk: Moderate Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
8% Average Annual Growth in Value
-20% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 35-55
20+Years: Mid-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who can tolerate some risk
Transition: 60% Diversified Stock
40% Fixed Income
Investors, as they get closer to retirement, usually transition their portfolios toward lower risk and more conservative allocations.

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Conservative Investor

Allocations
Conservative Portfolio Return
1 yr: 0.7%
5 yrs: 6.1%
10 yrs: 5.8%

Characteristics
Growth: Low
Income: Moderate
Risk: Low Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
6% Average Annual Growth in Value
-15% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 55+
10+Years: Short-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who are not risk tolerant

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