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How AAII members feel about current market conditions as of 1/18/2017:
Bullish 37.01%
Neutral 30.32%
Bearish 32.68%


Portfolio Observer

Popular Investment Benchmarks   (Data as of 12/31/2015)
Stocks Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Large-Cap Stocks 10.74% 11.82% 14.49% 6.82%
Mid-Cap Stocks 12.4% 20.23% 14.8% 8.7%
Small-Cap Stocks 13.84% 18.17% 14.68% 8.04%
International Stocks 12.03% 1.08% 6.44% 0.9%
Emerging Markets Stocks 16.32% 11.5% 1.26% 1.72%
Fixed Income
Intermediate Bonds 3.66% 1.19% 1.29% 4.41%
Short-Term Bonds 1.05% 1.08% 0.57% 2.34%
Overall market
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 11.02% 12.53% 14.49% 7.11%

AAII Asset Allocation Models

What is your investor profile? Follow one of our recommended allocations and check back frequently for monthly return data.

Investor Profile Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Aggressive Investor
  • Age 18-35
  • 30+ Years Investment Horizon
9.9% 11.5% 10.3% 5.5%
Moderate Investor
  • Age 35-55
  • 20+ Years Investment Horizon
7.5% 9.3% 8.7% 5.5%
Conservative Investor
  • Age 55+
  • 10+ Years Investment Horizon
5.3% 7.4% 7.5% 5.4%
 Suggested Allocation Breakdowns
Aggressive


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   20% Small-Cap Stocks
   20% International Stocks
   10% Emerging Markets Stocks
   10% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Moderate


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   15% International Stocks
   5% Emerging Markets Stocks
   30% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Conservative


   25% Large-Cap Stocks
   10% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   5% International Stocks
   0% Emerging Markets Stocks
   40% Intermediate Bonds
   10% Short-Term Bonds
Aggressive Portfolio Return
YTD: 11.5%
1 yr: 11.5%
5 yrs: 10.3%
10 yrs: 5.5%
Moderate Portfolio Return
YTD: 9.3%
1 yr: 9.3%
5 yrs: 8.7%
10 yrs: 5.5%
Conservative Portfolio Return
YTD: 7.4%
1 yr: 7.4%
5 yrs: 7.5%
10 yrs: 5.4%

Broad Allocation Scenarios
Aggressive Investor

Allocations

Aggressive Portfolio Return
1 yr: 11.5%
5 yrs: 10.3%
10 yrs: 5.5%

Characteristics
Growth: Substantial
Income: Very Low
Risk: Substantial Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
10% Average Annual Growth in Value
-30% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 18-35
30+Years: Long Investment Horizon
For investors who are very risk tolerant
Transition: 80% Diversified Stock
20% Fixed Income
Investors, as they age, usually transition their portfolios toward less risky and less aggressive asset allocations.

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Moderate Investor

Allocations

Moderate Portfolio Return
1 yr: 9.3%
5 yrs: 8.7%
10 yrs: 5.5%

Characteristics
Growth: Moderate
Income: Low
Risk: Moderate Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
8% Average Annual Growth in Value
-20% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 35-55
20+Years: Mid-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who can tolerate some risk
Transition: 60% Diversified Stock
40% Fixed Income
Investors, as they get closer to retirement, usually transition their portfolios toward lower risk and more conservative allocations.

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Conservative Investor

Allocations
Conservative Portfolio Return
1 yr: 7.4%
5 yrs: 7.5%
10 yrs: 5.4%

Characteristics
Growth: Low
Income: Moderate
Risk: Low Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
6% Average Annual Growth in Value
-15% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 55+
10+Years: Short-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who are not risk tolerant

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Investing Basics... and Beyond is an E-book you may think is only for beginning investors... but it's filled with so much sound advice that every reader can benefit from.
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