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How AAII members feel about current market conditions as of 4/27/2016:
Bullish 27.37%
Neutral 44.03%
Bearish 28.60%


Portfolio Observer

Popular Investment Benchmarks   (Data as of 12/31/2015)
Stocks Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Large-Cap Stocks 11.35% 1.65% 11.41% 6.89%
Mid-Cap Stocks 12.52% -4.02% 9.01% 7.32%
Small-Cap Stocks 13.75% -7.25% 8.64% 6.68%
International Stocks 13.31% -8.45% 2.16% 1.93%
Emerging Markets Stocks 16.9% -12.8% -4.31% 2.68%
Fixed Income
Intermediate Bonds 3.67% 3.08% 3.7% 5.09%
Short-Term Bonds 0.96% 1.16% 1.07% 2.72%
Overall market
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 11.54% -0.56% 10.86% 6.93%

AAII Asset Allocation Models

What is your investor profile? Follow one of our recommended allocations and check back frequently for monthly return data.

Investor Profile Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Aggressive Investor
  • Age 18-35
  • 30+ Years Investment Horizon
10.8% -4.6% 6.2% 5.3%
Moderate Investor
  • Age 35-55
  • 20+ Years Investment Horizon
8.3% -2.2% 6.2% 5.5%
Conservative Investor
  • Age 55+
  • 10+ Years Investment Horizon
5.8% 0.2% 6.3% 5.5%
 Suggested Allocation Breakdowns
Aggressive


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   20% Small-Cap Stocks
   20% International Stocks
   10% Emerging Markets Stocks
   10% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Moderate


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   15% International Stocks
   5% Emerging Markets Stocks
   30% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Conservative


   25% Large-Cap Stocks
   10% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   5% International Stocks
   0% Emerging Markets Stocks
   40% Intermediate Bonds
   10% Short-Term Bonds
Aggressive Portfolio Return
YTD: 1.5%
1 yr: -4.6%
5 yrs: 6.2%
10 yrs: 5.3%
Moderate Portfolio Return
YTD: 2.0%
1 yr: -2.2%
5 yrs: 6.2%
10 yrs: 5.5%
Conservative Portfolio Return
YTD: 2.1%
1 yr: 0.2%
5 yrs: 6.3%
10 yrs: 5.5%

Broad Allocation Scenarios
Aggressive Investor

Allocations

Aggressive Portfolio Return
1 yr: -4.6%
5 yrs: 6.2%
10 yrs: 5.3%

Characteristics
Growth: Substantial
Income: Very Low
Risk: Substantial Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
10% Average Annual Growth in Value
-30% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 18-35
30+Years: Long Investment Horizon
For investors who are very risk tolerant
Transition: 80% Diversified Stock
20% Fixed Income
Investors, as they age, usually transition their portfolios toward less risky and less aggressive asset allocations.

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Moderate Investor

Allocations

Moderate Portfolio Return
1 yr: -2.2%
5 yrs: 6.2%
10 yrs: 5.5%

Characteristics
Growth: Moderate
Income: Low
Risk: Moderate Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
8% Average Annual Growth in Value
-20% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 35-55
20+Years: Mid-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who can tolerate some risk
Transition: 60% Diversified Stock
40% Fixed Income
Investors, as they get closer to retirement, usually transition their portfolios toward lower risk and more conservative allocations.

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Conservative Investor

Allocations
Conservative Portfolio Return
1 yr: 0.2%
5 yrs: 6.3%
10 yrs: 5.5%

Characteristics
Growth: Low
Income: Moderate
Risk: Low Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
6% Average Annual Growth in Value
-15% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 55+
10+Years: Short-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who are not risk tolerant

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