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American Association of Individual Investors Web site

How AAII members feel about current market conditions as of 7/20/2016:
Bullish 35.43%
Neutral 37.85%
Bearish 26.72%


Portfolio Observer

Popular Investment Benchmarks   (Data as of 12/31/2015)
Stocks Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Large-Cap Stocks 11.25% 3.84% 11.93% 7.3%
Mid-Cap Stocks 12.43% 0.89% 10.02% 8.09%
Small-Cap Stocks 13.63% -3.01% 9.75% 7.61%
International Stocks 12.91% -9.74% 1.69% 1.75%
Emerging Markets Stocks 16.77% -12.29% -3.7% 3.39%
Fixed Income
Intermediate Bonds 3.47% 5.97% 3.4% 5.3%
Short-Term Bonds 1.0% 1.72% 0.95% 2.71%
Overall market
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 3.3% 2.01% 11.45% 7.43%

AAII Asset Allocation Models

What is your investor profile? Follow one of our recommended allocations and check back frequently for monthly return data.

Investor Profile Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Aggressive Investor
  • Age 18-35
  • 30+ Years Investment Horizon
10.4% -2.2% 6.6% 5.8%
Moderate Investor
  • Age 35-55
  • 20+ Years Investment Horizon
7.9% 0.4% 6.5% 5.9%
Conservative Investor
  • Age 55+
  • 10+ Years Investment Horizon
5.5% 2.8% 6.5% 5.9%
 Suggested Allocation Breakdowns
Aggressive


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   20% Small-Cap Stocks
   20% International Stocks
   10% Emerging Markets Stocks
   10% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Moderate


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   15% International Stocks
   5% Emerging Markets Stocks
   30% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Conservative


   25% Large-Cap Stocks
   10% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   5% International Stocks
   0% Emerging Markets Stocks
   40% Intermediate Bonds
   10% Short-Term Bonds
Aggressive Portfolio Return
YTD: 3.9%
1 yr: -2.2%
5 yrs: 6.6%
10 yrs: 5.8%
Moderate Portfolio Return
YTD: 4.2%
1 yr: 0.4%
5 yrs: 6.5%
10 yrs: 5.9%
Conservative Portfolio Return
YTD: 4.3%
1 yr: 2.8%
5 yrs: 6.5%
10 yrs: 5.9%

Broad Allocation Scenarios
Aggressive Investor

Allocations

Aggressive Portfolio Return
1 yr: -2.2%
5 yrs: 6.6%
10 yrs: 5.8%

Characteristics
Growth: Substantial
Income: Very Low
Risk: Substantial Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
10% Average Annual Growth in Value
-30% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 18-35
30+Years: Long Investment Horizon
For investors who are very risk tolerant
Transition: 80% Diversified Stock
20% Fixed Income
Investors, as they age, usually transition their portfolios toward less risky and less aggressive asset allocations.

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Moderate Investor

Allocations

Moderate Portfolio Return
1 yr: 0.4%
5 yrs: 6.5%
10 yrs: 5.9%

Characteristics
Growth: Moderate
Income: Low
Risk: Moderate Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
8% Average Annual Growth in Value
-20% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 35-55
20+Years: Mid-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who can tolerate some risk
Transition: 60% Diversified Stock
40% Fixed Income
Investors, as they get closer to retirement, usually transition their portfolios toward lower risk and more conservative allocations.

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Conservative Investor

Allocations
Conservative Portfolio Return
1 yr: 2.8%
5 yrs: 6.5%
10 yrs: 5.9%

Characteristics
Growth: Low
Income: Moderate
Risk: Low Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
6% Average Annual Growth in Value
-15% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 55+
10+Years: Short-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who are not risk tolerant

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