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How AAII members feel about current market conditions as of 3/22/2017:
Bullish 35.28%
Neutral 34.22%
Bearish 30.50%


Portfolio Observer

Popular Investment Benchmarks   (Data as of 12/31/2015)
Stocks Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Large-Cap Stocks 10.4% 24.82% 13.85% 7.5%
Mid-Cap Stocks 12.1% 31.11% 13.31% 8.69%
Small-Cap Stocks 13.55% 31.82% 13.31% 8.22%
International Stocks 11.37% 15.76% 5.13% 1.24%
Emerging Markets Stocks 15.98% 29.75% -0.33% 2.73%
Fixed Income
Intermediate Bonds 3.56% -1.26% 1.4% 4.32%
Short-Term Bonds 1.05% 0.35% 0.6% 2.25%
Overall market
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 10.69% 26.14% 13.67% 7.68%

AAII Asset Allocation Models

What is your investor profile? Follow one of our recommended allocations and check back frequently for monthly return data.

Investor Profile Standard Deviation 1 yr 5 yrs 10 yrs
Aggressive Investor
  • Age 18-35
  • 30+ Years Investment Horizon
9.7% 23.6% 9.2% 5.8%
Moderate Investor
  • Age 35-55
  • 20+ Years Investment Horizon
7.3% 17.8% 7.9% 5.7%
Conservative Investor
  • Age 55+
  • 10+ Years Investment Horizon
5.2% 12.8% 7.0% 5.6%
 Suggested Allocation Breakdowns
Aggressive


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   20% Small-Cap Stocks
   20% International Stocks
   10% Emerging Markets Stocks
   10% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Moderate


   20% Large-Cap Stocks
   20% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   15% International Stocks
   5% Emerging Markets Stocks
   30% Intermediate Bonds
   0% Short-Term Bonds
Conservative


   25% Large-Cap Stocks
   10% Mid-Cap Stocks
   10% Small-Cap Stocks
   5% International Stocks
   0% Emerging Markets Stocks
   40% Intermediate Bonds
   10% Short-Term Bonds
Aggressive Portfolio Return
YTD: 4.6%
1 yr: 23.6%
5 yrs: 9.2%
10 yrs: 5.8%
Moderate Portfolio Return
YTD: 3.7%
1 yr: 17.8%
5 yrs: 7.9%
10 yrs: 5.7%
Conservative Portfolio Return
YTD: 2.8%
1 yr: 12.8%
5 yrs: 7.0%
10 yrs: 5.6%

Broad Allocation Scenarios
Aggressive Investor

Allocations

Aggressive Portfolio Return
1 yr: 23.6%
5 yrs: 9.2%
10 yrs: 5.8%

Characteristics
Growth: Substantial
Income: Very Low
Risk: Substantial Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
10% Average Annual Growth in Value
-30% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 18-35
30+Years: Long Investment Horizon
For investors who are very risk tolerant
Transition: 80% Diversified Stock
20% Fixed Income
Investors, as they age, usually transition their portfolios toward less risky and less aggressive asset allocations.

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Moderate Investor

Allocations

Moderate Portfolio Return
1 yr: 17.8%
5 yrs: 7.9%
10 yrs: 5.7%

Characteristics
Growth: Moderate
Income: Low
Risk: Moderate Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
8% Average Annual Growth in Value
-20% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 35-55
20+Years: Mid-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who can tolerate some risk
Transition: 60% Diversified Stock
40% Fixed Income
Investors, as they get closer to retirement, usually transition their portfolios toward lower risk and more conservative allocations.

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Conservative Investor

Allocations
Conservative Portfolio Return
1 yr: 12.8%
5 yrs: 7.0%
10 yrs: 5.6%

Characteristics
Growth: Low
Income: Moderate
Risk: Low Year-to-Year Volatility of Portfolio Value
6% Average Annual Growth in Value
-15% Bad Year

Time Horizon
Age: often 55+
10+Years: Short-Term Investment Horizon
 
For investors who are not risk tolerant

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